The Estimate

Overview

The estimate is a document that tells a prospective client what a build will cost. It is a form of honest prediction made with known-incomplete information, and is therefore a test of the builder's judgment more than of their arithmetic. A good estimate reflects the known unknowns. A bad one pretends they aren't there.

Principles

• Walk the site before you quote. The drawings lie. The site doesn't.
• Price for the work, not the aspiration. If the number scares you, the work is bigger than you admitted.
• Itemize what's included. The client cannot read your mind.
• Itemize what's excluded. Clarity beats optimism.
• Note the assumptions. "Assumes existing subfloor is level within 1/4"" saves a fight later.
• Expiry date. A six-month-old estimate is not an estimate. It's a coincidence.
• A contingency is not a shame. It is a tool.

Software Parallels

The estimate's software equivalent is the fixed-bid quote, or any deadline-driven scope commitment. The rules transfer directly: walk the existing code (site), itemize scope inclusions and exclusions, name the assumptions, and include contingency. The industry has independently invented the estimate several times and named it "story points," "t-shirt sizes," and "SWAGs." The original is better.

"Every estimate is wrong. The question is whether it's wrong in the way you intended." — Burbridge, at a pricing meeting